If you’re trying to budget for a trip to Istanbul, manage an import business, or just follow the global economy, the wild ride of the Turkish lira (TRY) against the US dollar (USD) probably feels endless. I’ve tracked this for years—sometimes for serious work, sometimes just to see how much my favorite baklava cost in dollar terms. In this article, I’ll break down what’s really happening with the TRY/USD exchange rate, how experts forecast its future, and what you should know if you rely on this conversion. I’ll sprinkle in some hands-on experience, expert opinions, and even a real-world case of a business wrestling with lira volatility. Plus, I’ll bring in some surprising international perspectives (and a chart comparing how different countries define “verified trade” for context).
This isn’t just about currency traders. If you’re buying Turkish textiles, exporting US wheat, or considering Turkish real estate, a lira that moves suddenly can wreck your plans. Even sending money back home or paying tuition could get expensive fast. I remember talking to a friend who runs an import shop in Berlin—he’s obsessed with the lira, and for good reason: a 5% daily swing can wipe out a month’s profit.
Let’s cut through the noise. The lira has a reputation for volatility, and for good reason. But what’s actually driving forecasts, and what do the numbers say? Here’s how I usually approach this:
First things first: I go straight to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) for recent monetary policy moves. They publish regular updates on interest rates and interventions. For global context, I also check IMF country reports and the World Bank.
Personal tip: On more than one occasion, I’ve relied on CBRT’s surprise interest rate hikes to anticipate where the lira would go next. Sometimes I got it wrong—a 750 bps hike in 2023 barely stabilized the currency for more than a few weeks. Lesson: monetary policy helps, but it’s not everything in Turkey.
Most mainstream banks and analysts agree: persistent high inflation, current account deficits, and political uncertainty are pushing the lira downward. For instance, here’s what economists from Goldman Sachs said in late 2023: “We expect continued depreciation in the lira, albeit at a slower pace, as the government gradually shifts toward orthodox policy.” (Reuters poll, Dec 2023)
Here’s a quick snapshot from my research notebook:
I’ve seen some outlier forecasts (a few local analysts think the government might manage a stabilization in the 30s with aggressive rate hikes), but the consensus is clear: the lira will likely keep losing value, just maybe not as fast as before.
In Turkey, political events can move the lira more than any spreadsheet ever could. For example, after the 2023 elections, I watched the lira drop almost 8% in a week as investors reacted to concerns about economic management. International agencies like OECD also flag these risks regularly.
My advice: If you’re planning a big transaction, don’t just watch the charts—keep an eye on parliamentary debates and presidential pronouncements.
Let’s look at a (partly anonymized) real case. In 2023, a friend of mine—let’s call him Hasan—ran a ceramics export business in Izmir. He priced his goods in dollars but paid his workers and suppliers in lira. When the lira suddenly fell from 19 to 23 per dollar in a matter of weeks, he faced a dilemma: raise prices for his American buyers or absorb the loss.
He tried to hedge with forward contracts, but Turkish banks made it tricky due to regulatory controls. Eventually, he negotiated partial payment in euros, which proved slightly more stable. “Every week felt like gambling,” Hasan told me, “but as long as inflation is high, the lira will keep sliding.”
For those curious: Bloomberg reported similar stories throughout 2023-2024.
Why does this matter? Because regulations on money transfers and trade settlements can impact lira/dollar flows. Here’s a quick comparison:
| Name | Legal Basis | Enforcement Agency | Key Requirements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey: Foreign Exchange Regulation | Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Law No. 1211 | CBRT | Detailed documentation for trade payments, FX reporting |
| USA: Verified Trade Settlement | USTR, FinCEN, 31 CFR Part 1010 | FinCEN, USTR | Anti-money laundering checks, full KYC on both sides |
| EU: Single Market Certification | EU Regulation (EU) 2018/1672 | European Commission, Customs | Cross-border reporting above €10,000, data sharing |
| China: Foreign Trade Verification | SAFE Circular [2019] No. 7 | State Administration of Foreign Exchange | Real-name registration, export contract filing |
Notice: Turkey’s unique FX controls and reporting requirements can sometimes slow down dollar inflows/outflows, which in turn affect the exchange rate’s stability.
I caught a recent webinar by Dr. Canan Erdem (a Turkish financial economist). Her summary: “Unless Turkey sees a credible reduction in inflation and a real return to orthodox economic policies, the lira will continue to face downward pressure. Short-term rallies are possible, but the long-term trend is clear.”
And here’s a snippet from a recent Financial Times analysis: “Structural imbalances and policy uncertainty remain significant headwinds for the lira. Investors should anticipate further weakness, albeit with occasional periods of stabilization.”
I’ve had more than one “facepalm” moment trying to time lira conversions. In early 2022, I thought the lira had finally bottomed out after a massive selloff. I exchanged some dollars at 13.5, feeling like a genius—only to watch it hit 18 within months. If you’re not a professional hedger, my experience says: spread out your transfers, use alerts, and don’t try to beat the market.
A friend who runs a small e-commerce store selling to Turkey told me, “We now quote prices in dollars only, and let the payment processor handle the conversion. Otherwise, we’d go nuts.”
All the evidence—from expert forecasts and regulatory analysis to personal experience—points to a likely continued weakening of the lira against the dollar, at least until inflation is tamed and more predictable economic policies are in place. For businesses, this means planning for currency risk, considering hedging where possible, and building flexibility into contracts. For individuals, stagger your conversions and stay informed, but don’t stress about trying to predict the next big move.
If you’re handling international trade, pay close attention to each country’s requirements for “verified trade”—it can affect how quickly (and cheaply) you move lira and dollars across borders. When in doubt, consult official sources and maybe even a currency risk expert. And if you make a mistake, don’t beat yourself up—I’ve been there (more than once).
Next steps: Set up alerts on your favorite currency tracker, follow the CBRT and IMF updates, and—if you’re running a business—think about building in some buffer for sudden shifts. In currency markets, the only certainty is change.