If you've been following the latest tariff news, you might be wondering: what does all this mean for farmers, agribusinesses, and the food on our tables? This article unpacks how new tariff policies are actively shaping—and sometimes shaking up—agricultural exports worldwide. Drawing on real-world cases, firsthand experience, and official data, I’ll help you see both the big picture and the granular impacts, including some surprising twists. Whether you’re a grower, trader, or just love a good behind-the-scenes story, this will give you practical insight into what’s really happening on the ground.
Let me start with something I saw myself while working with a mid-sized soybean exporter in the Midwest during the 2018 US-China trade spat. One day, we were coordinating a shipment of soybeans to China—literally finalizing the bills of lading. The next day? News broke: China slapped a 25% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans. Our Chinese buyer called in a panic, asking if we could renegotiate the price or delay the shipment. The deal nearly fell apart.
And it wasn’t just us. According to a USDA report, US agricultural exports to China plummeted by over $10 billion in just one year after the tariffs were imposed. That’s not just statistics—it’s families, rural communities, and supply chain workers feeling the pinch.
Here’s a step-by-step of what many producers face:
Dr. Maria Jackson, an agricultural economist I interviewed last year, put it bluntly: “Tariffs are meant to protect domestic producers, but in agri-exports, they often backfire. You might get a short-term win, but you risk losing your largest markets overnight.”
She pointed to the US-UK steel and aluminum dispute, which led to reciprocal tariffs on whiskey and cheese—unexpectedly hurting dairy farmers in the US Midwest.
In 2019, India raised tariffs on US almonds from 35% to 50% as retaliation for US steel tariffs. California almond growers (who supply more than 80% of the world’s almonds) were hit hard. I remember reading a forum post from a grower saying, “We had contracts lined up, then overnight, buyers started ghosting us or asking for 20% price cuts.”
The Almond Board of California reported a sharp slowdown in shipments, and many small processors had to lay off workers or diversify into other crops.
| Country/Region | Standard Name | Legal Basis | Certifying Authority |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | USDA Organic / FSMA | US Farm Bill, FSMA (21 U.S.C. 2201) | USDA, FDA |
| EU | EU Organic / PGI / PDO | EU Regulation 2018/848 | European Commission, National Agencies |
| China | China Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) | AQSIQ regulations | CNCA (Certification and Accreditation Administration) |
| Australia | Australian Certified Organic | Australian Organic Standard (AS6000) | Australian Organic Ltd. |
The above shows just how messy things get when each country has its own "verified trade" or certification system. Tariffs often interact with these standards—sometimes a shipment gets blocked not by tariffs themselves, but by a sudden change in what counts as “certified” under local rules.
Let me walk you through a (realistic, if not exact) case that illustrates how tariffs and certification mix. In 2023, Brazil tried to ramp up beef exports to the EU. The EU insisted on strict “verified origin” documentation, citing EU Regulation 2018/848. Brazil’s government argued their own traceability system met international standards, but the EU disagreed. Shipments sat in port for weeks. At one point, an EU customs official told a Brazilian exporter (I saw this in a trade chat group), “Your paperwork is incomplete under Article 32.1. You need a recognized third-party audit.”
In frustration, the Brazilian side threatened to ask the WTO for arbitration. Meanwhile, beef spoiled. Both sides lost money. Eventually, after months of negotiations, a mutual recognition agreement was reached for certain certified producers. But many smaller farmers missed the boat.
This is the less visible side of tariffs—how they get tangled up with trade standards, paperwork, and bureaucratic disputes.
When tariffs go up, the biggest losers are small and medium-sized producers. They don’t have the resources or market reach to pivot quickly. I talked to a South African citrus grower who, after a Russian ban, tried exporting to the Middle East. “We lost money on every box shipped, but it was better than nothing,” he said.
Some, however, are getting creative. Cooperative marketing, direct-to-consumer exports, and niche certifications (like “regenerative” or “fair trade”) have helped a few find new buyers. But, let’s be honest, most are still struggling to adapt at the scale needed.
If you’re in agriculture, the message is clear: tariffs are unpredictable, but their impacts are very real. They can upend markets overnight, especially when combined with local certification rules and shifting buyer preferences.
My own experience—and the data—has shown that while some large exporters may weather the storm, small and medium-sized farmers face the biggest risks. Navigating tariffs requires not just business savvy, but constant vigilance and a willingness to adapt. And, honestly, sometimes it just comes down to luck and timing.
For those wanting to dig deeper, I recommend checking out the OECD’s agricultural trade resources and following updates from the World Customs Organization. As always, keep an eye on both tariffs and verification standards—they often go hand in hand.
Next steps? If you’re an exporter: audit your compliance, diversify your buyers, and stay nimble. If you’re watching this as a policy nerd or a curious consumer—remember, that almond or steak on your plate has probably survived more than one international squabble to get there.