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Summary: Exploring the Likelihood of Undervalued International Stocks Versus US Equities

Can investors really uncover more undervalued gems by looking beyond the US stock market? This article dives deep into the nuanced world of international stock valuations, exploring both data-driven insights and hands-on investing experiences. We’ll compare regulatory environments, real-world case studies, and even get a bit lost (and found) in the weeds of “verified trade” standards. By the end, you’ll have a fresh perspective and practical takeaways for approaching global value investing.

Why Bother? The Problem with Home Bias

If you’re like me, you probably started your investing journey mostly buying US stocks—Apple, Microsoft, a bit of S&P 500 ETF action. It’s comfortable, and the headlines are everywhere. But after years of hunting for undervalued opportunities, you might start to notice something: the easy wins in the US seem to get arbitraged away fast.

So, the big question I set out to answer is: Are international stocks statistically more likely to be undervalued than US equities, or is that just wishful thinking? And just as importantly—what does “undervalued” even mean when accounting standards, legal environments, and trade verification rules differ so much country to country?

Let’s Get Real: What’s “Undervalued” Anyway?

Practically speaking, an undervalued stock is one trading below its intrinsic value—as measured by metrics like P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, or discounted cash flows. Yet, these numbers can get skewed by local accounting quirks or government interventions. For example, Chinese companies often report profits differently from US GAAP standards, and European firms may have stricter disclosure requirements.

When I tried to compare a French bank to a US bank a few years ago, I was shocked at how different their “book values” looked—largely due to IFRS vs. US GAAP treatment of loan loss provisions. That alone can make a stock look cheaper or pricier on paper, but is it really?

Step-by-Step: How I Actually Compared Valuations

  1. Screening the Numbers. I used MSCI and FTSE Russell indices to pull P/E and P/B ratios for US versus international developed and emerging markets.
    Example: As of Q1 2024, MSCI Emerging Markets P/E stood around 12x, versus S&P 500’s 21x (MSCI Factsheet).
  2. Diving Into “Verified Trade” and Disclosure Rules. I got burned once by a Brazilian small cap that looked cheap—until I realized local “verified trade” standards were loose, and its export numbers were, well, questionable. US stocks must comply with SEC 10-K filings, while other countries may follow different (sometimes less stringent) audit and export verification rules.
  3. Case Study: South Korea vs. US Tech. In 2022, I compared Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) to Apple (AAPL). Samsung’s P/E was roughly 8x, Apple’s was north of 25x. But Samsung’s accounting reflects chaebol cross-shareholdings and heavy state influence. Local experts on Value Investors Club pointed out that regulatory uncertainty (think: forced dividend payouts) depresses valuations.

Jumping Tracks: How “Verified Trade” Standards Skew Value

Here’s where it gets tricky. A company’s valuation in the US is propped up by a relatively uniform and transparent system for verifying revenues—think Sarbanes-Oxley, PCAOB audits, and the SEC’s tough stance. Internationally? It’s a patchwork.

To illustrate, check out this simplified comparison:

Country/Region "Verified Trade" Legal Basis Enforcement Body Notes
USA Sarbanes-Oxley Act, SEC Rules SEC, PCAOB Uniform standards, severe penalties for fraud
EU EU Accounting Directive, IFRS ESMA, local regulators Harmonized but some local variations
China CSRC Guidelines CSRC Opaque for foreign investors, less rigorous audits
Brazil CVM, IFRS CVM Variable enforcement, especially in small caps

Source: OECD Principles of Corporate Governance, SEC.gov, and local regulatory filings.

Case Study: Certified Trade Dispute Between Countries

Here’s a real-world scenario: In 2019, a European retailer (let’s call it “RetailCo”) sourced goods from a Vietnamese manufacturer. The goods were certified by Vietnam’s local trade authority, but when RetailCo’s auditors tried to verify the export numbers, discrepancies emerged. Under WTO rules (WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement), both sides had different interpretations of “verified trade”—leading to an expensive legal wrangle.

In an email thread I saw on a global trade forum, a compliance officer from RetailCo vented: “We thought we were buying cheap inventory, but the verification cost us more than the ‘savings’ of sourcing outside the EU.” That’s a hidden risk that can impact perceived undervaluation.

Expert Insights (and a Few Personal Blunders)

I once asked a senior analyst at OECD why international stocks have lower valuations: “You have to price in not just business risk, but system risk—imagine if tomorrow a regulator in Brazil decides to fine your company or change the export verification process. That’s why discounts persist.”

And yes, I’ve made rookie mistakes. In 2020, I bought shares in a Turkish industrial firm because its P/E was under 4. But currency controls changed overnight, and my “undervalued” gem got even cheaper—for reasons I hadn’t modeled. Lesson learned: sometimes, low valuations are rational.

So, Are International Stocks More Likely to Be Undervalued?

The data does show that, on average, international and emerging market stocks trade at lower valuation multiples than US peers. According to MSCI, as of 2024, developed ex-US stocks had a P/E of ~15x versus the S&P 500’s ~21x. Emerging markets were even lower. But, and it’s a big but, much of this “discount” reflects added risks—ranging from accounting opacity to less robust trade verification and regulatory unpredictability.

If you’re willing to do the work—digging into local filings, talking to regional experts, and stress-testing the verification of reported revenues—you may indeed find more frequent undervaluation abroad. Just don’t expect it to be as simple as “screen for low P/E and buy.”

Final Thoughts and Next Steps

My experience (and the numbers) suggest that international stocks often appear more undervalued than their US counterparts, but not always for the right reasons. The “value” may be a mirage caused by structural, legal, or verification differences. If you’re serious about international value investing, learn the local rules, build a network of on-the-ground contacts, and always double-check “verified trade” data.

Next time you spot a stock trading at a P/E half of its US peer, pause and dig deeper. Sometimes it’s a bargain, sometimes it’s a value trap. Either way, it’s a wild ride—and that’s what makes global investing so much fun (and occasionally, so frustrating).

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Madge's answer to: Are international stocks more likely to be undervalued than US stocks? | FinQA