Curious about why the dolar peso hoy changes so much, especially after big remittance inflows from the U.S. to Mexico? This article unpacks how those family transfers—often sent home by Mexican workers abroad—play a surprisingly complex role in Mexico’s currency stability. We’ll go beyond the surface, using real data, regulatory documents, and even a few personal stories to explain why remittances don’t always have the impact you might expect on the dollar-peso exchange rate.
Let’s start with the basic idea: billions of dollars are sent each year from Mexicans working in the U.S. to their families in Mexico. The logic seems straightforward: if millions of people are exchanging dollars for pesos, shouldn’t that push up the value of the peso?
According to data from Banco de México, remittances hit a record $61.1 billion USD in 2023. On days when those transfers spike, you’d expect a rush to sell dollars and buy pesos, nudging the peso higher and the exchange rate lower. But reality is messier.
Here’s a step-by-step breakdown based on my own attempts to trace the process—and yes, I’ve actually tried tracking a remittance from the U.S. to a family in Puebla, just to see where the dollars go!
I remember thinking the process would instantly boost the peso—only to be told by a bank manager in Mexico City: “Most of these dollars never even physically hit our market. They’re settled between institutions, with rates hedged in advance.”
The influence of remittances on the exchange rate is shaped by government oversight and international standards. For example, the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) sets anti-money-laundering standards for remittances, but does not regulate exchange rates directly.
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) closely monitors remittance flows for macroeconomic stability. In its 2023 quarterly report, Banxico notes that remittances help offset Mexico’s current account deficit, but their effect on the exchange rate is often “neutralized by parallel capital flows and hedging activity.”
The U.S. Treasury, via the Exchange Rate Policies Report, has also commented that remittance-driven currency demand is typically absorbed by sophisticated financial intermediaries, limiting direct spot market effects.
I once sat in on an online Q&A with Dr. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco BASE, who was blunt: “For every dollar sent as a remittance, there’s often already a matching peso in circulation. Most remittance companies have perfected risk management, so the peso doesn’t always rally on higher inflows.”
Here’s an example from 2022: Despite a surge in remittances after the pandemic (as documented by the BBVA Research Migration Report), the USD/MXN rate stayed relatively stable—partly because foreign investment was also flowing out at the same time, offsetting the peso demand from remittances.
During my own experiment, I sent $100 from Texas to Puebla. The local recipient cashed out at a rate slightly below the official interbank rate. Later that week, the peso actually fell, despite record remittance inflows. Turns out, larger market forces—like U.S. interest rate hikes or oil price swings—often overpower the remittance “signal.”
| Country | Standard Name | Legal Basis | Implementing Agency | How Remittances Count in FX Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | Remittance Reporting Law (Ley de Instituciones de Crédito) | Article 115, Ley de Instituciones de Crédito | Banxico, CNBV | Classified as current transfer, tracked separately from trade |
| USA | Bank Secrecy Act, PATRIOT Act | 31 USC § 5311 et seq., 31 CFR Part 1022 | FinCEN, Federal Reserve | Tracked as personal transfer, not as trade; affects balance of payments |
| EU | PSD2, AMLD5 | Directive (EU) 2015/2366, Directive (EU) 2018/843 | ECB, EBA, National Central Banks | Remittances tracked as personal current transfers, separate FX reporting |
As you can see, most countries keep remittance flows distinct from “verified trade,” meaning they’re not treated the same as exports or imports when it comes to calculating the currency’s value in the open FX market. (For more on this, see the IMF Balance of Payments Manual).
Let’s imagine a scenario: A sudden spike in remittances arrives in Mexico right after a political shock in the U.S. At first, Mexican banks see a surge in foreign currency deposits, but global investors are also panicking and pulling money out of Mexican assets. Even with more dollars being converted to pesos, the peso might still weaken if broader market sentiment turns negative.
As Juan Carlos Escalante, a senior FX trader in CDMX, told me: “Even if remittances pour in, it’s like pouring water into a bucket with a hole—if capital flight accelerates, the peso can still sink.”
According to World Bank statistics, the peso sometimes appreciates slightly in the days after large remittance inflows, but over the medium term, other factors (like commodity prices and U.S. monetary policy) have a much stronger impact on the spot rate.
In fact, a 2022 analysis by UN Economic Commission for Latin America concluded that the correlation between monthly remittance inflows and peso appreciation is “statistically insignificant” when controlling for other macroeconomic variables.
So, does the flow of remittances from the U.S. to Mexico have a real impact on the peso-dollar exchange rate? The answer: sometimes, but not nearly as much as headline numbers might suggest. Remittances provide vital support to families and help stabilize Mexico’s external accounts, but their direct effect on the spot exchange rate is usually diluted by financial intermediation, regulatory reporting, and larger capital flows.
If you’re tracking dolar peso hoy for investment or personal reasons, don’t just watch remittance data—keep an eye on broader factors such as U.S. interest rates, oil prices, Mexican fiscal policy, and even global risk sentiment. My own trial and error taught me that “big news” about remittances rarely moves the exchange rate unless it’s paired with other market shocks.
For those who want to dig deeper, I recommend reviewing the Banxico quarterly reports and the BBVA Research migration studies for up-to-date analysis.
And if you ever try tracking your own remittance’s effect—don’t be surprised if, like me, you end up chasing a moving target. The foreign exchange market has a way of reminding all of us: it’s never just about one factor.