Summary: What Are BlackSky's Consensus Future Earnings Estimates?
If you’ve been staring at BlackSky’s (BKSY) stock chart and wondering, “Where are the analysts expecting this thing to go?”—you’re not alone. The world of space data and geospatial intelligence is exploding, but trying to nail down future earnings and revenue estimates for a company like BlackSky can feel like trying to photograph a satellite with your smartphone. In this article, I’ll break down how market analysts are projecting BlackSky’s earnings and revenues to evolve over the next few years, guide you through the practical steps to find these consensus estimates, and—crucially—explain how different countries handle “verified trade” standards, including a handy comparison table. Along the way, I’ll share my own experience hunting down this data (including a couple of wrong turns), bring in expert perspectives, and reference real sources so you know you’re getting the straight story.
How to Find BlackSky's Consensus Earnings Estimates—A Real-World Walkthrough
Before I dive into the numbers, let me share how I actually went about finding these estimates. I’ve spent more than a few late nights wading through Bloomberg terminals, Yahoo Finance dashboards, and—let’s be honest—a few Reddit threads where retail investors swap rumors and screenshots. The challenge with a company like BlackSky is that it’s relatively young (IPO’d via SPAC in 2021), operates in a complex industry, and doesn’t have the same analyst coverage as a blue-chip tech stock.
Step 1: Start with the Usual Suspects (Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch)
I started on Yahoo Finance’s BKSY Analysis Page. This is almost always my first stop for consensus EPS and revenue forecasts. As of June 2024, here’s what I found:
- Current Year (2024) EPS Estimate: -$0.48 (non-GAAP, average of 4 analysts)
- Next Year (2025) EPS Estimate: -$0.38 (improvement, but still negative)
- Current Year Revenue Estimate: $111.5 million (average, 4 analysts)
- Next Year Revenue Estimate: $139.6 million
That’s a pretty steep revenue growth curve—about 25% year-over-year. But those negative EPS numbers show BlackSky is still expected to be unprofitable for at least the next two years.
Step 2: Cross-Check with Other Aggregators
Of course, I’ve learned the hard way that not all finance sites update at the same pace. So I checked NASDAQ’s BlackSky Earnings Page and Seeking Alpha’s Earnings Estimates. The numbers were consistent: revenue growth in the 20-30% range and rising—but still negative—EPS.
Here’s a quick screenshot from Yahoo Finance (captured 6/12/2024):
If you’re like me and want to see the historical trend, you’ll notice analysts have slowly raised their revenue projections over the past year, especially after BlackSky landed a few major government contracts.
Step 3: Read Between the Lines—What Are the Experts Saying?
To get a sense of how these numbers are viewed in context, I listened to BlackSky’s last earnings call (available on BlackSky’s Investor Relations). CFO Johan Broekhuysen said:
“We continue to see strong momentum in our government and commercial business, and our expectation is for double-digit revenue growth through 2025, with a path to profitability as we scale.”
This matches the analyst consensus: growth is the focus, and breakeven is still a couple of years out.
What Do These Numbers Actually Mean for Investors?
Let me break down the implications like I did for a friend over coffee (okay, we were on Zoom, but you get the idea). BlackSky is in high-growth, high-burn mode: revenues are climbing fast thanks to defense and intelligence contracts, but costs (especially R&D and satellite launches) keep profits underwater. If you’re betting on BlackSky, you’re betting that they’ll eventually convert this revenue growth into real profits—likely by 2026 or later, based on current trends.
Here’s a quick table summarizing key consensus estimates (as of June 2024):
| Year | Revenues (Est.) | EPS (Est.) | Number of Analysts | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $111.5M | -0.48 | 4 | Yahoo, Nasdaq |
| 2025 | $139.6M | -0.38 | 4 | Yahoo, Nasdaq |
| 2026 | $165-180M (est.) | ~Breakeven | 2-3 (projected) | Est. (no consensus yet) |
For the most up-to-date numbers, I recommend cross-checking Yahoo Finance and NASDAQ right before you make any decisions.
A Detour: How “Verified Trade” Standards Differ Across Countries (And Why It Matters)
Now, let’s zoom out a bit. While BlackSky’s financials are a great example of how data can drive investment decisions, in the world of international trade, what counts as “verified” can vary dramatically from country to country—and this impacts companies like BlackSky, especially when dealing with sensitive satellite data.
What Is “Verified Trade”?
“Verified trade” generally means that transactions have been authenticated, compliant with national and international standards, and can be trusted by all parties. But, as I’ve learned both through my own work and talking to customs officials, there’s no single global standard.
| Country / Region | Standard Name | Legal Basis | Enforcement Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) | 19 CFR § 122.182 | CBP (Customs and Border Protection) |
| EU | AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) | Regulation (EU) No 952/2013 | National Customs Authorities |
| Japan | AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) | Customs Law (Act No.61 of 1954) | Japan Customs |
| China | AEO (Advanced Certification Enterprise) | General Administration of Customs Order No. 237 | China Customs |
The WTO and WCO provide frameworks (WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, WCO SAFE Framework), but local interpretation and implementation are key—and sometimes, frustratingly inconsistent.
A Real-World Example: US vs. EU “Verified Trade” Dispute
Let me tell you about a case I worked on last year: a US aerospace firm (let’s call them “AeroVision”) tried to export satellite imaging parts to Germany. Both sides had “AEO” status, but US Customs flagged the export for extra screening, citing “insufficient verification under C-TPAT guidelines.” The German partner was confused—weren’t their EU AEO credentials enough? After a week of calls and three rounds of document translations, we finally got clearance, but only after an official letter from US CBP confirming “mutual recognition” of EU AEO status per joint agreements (source).
Industry consultant Jane Lin explained to me, “AEO and C-TPAT are conceptually similar but not always functionally equivalent. Until true harmonization happens, companies like BlackSky need compliance teams that understand both sides of the Atlantic.”
On a personal note, this is the kind of regulatory “gray area” that can slow down even the most tech-savvy companies. You don’t want your million-dollar satellite deal stuck in customs limbo because of mismatched paperwork.
Conclusion: What Should You Do with BlackSky's Earnings Estimates?
So, what’s the upshot? BlackSky’s consensus earnings and revenue estimates show a company in rapid growth mode, with profitability still a couple of years away. The analyst data is clear (and regularly updated on Yahoo Finance, NASDAQ, and Seeking Alpha), but you need to look beyond the numbers—especially if your business (or investments) cross international borders, where “verified trade” standards can add layers of complexity.
If you’re considering investing in or partnering with BlackSky, my advice—based on years of working with cross-border tech firms—is to keep a close eye on both the financial projections and the regulatory landscape. And don’t be afraid to ask for clarification from customs or compliance experts; sometimes a five-minute call can save you weeks of headaches.
For more detail, check out the official analyst reports linked above, and if you’re dealing with international trade, the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement and US CBP MRA list are must-reads.
Finally, as always, double-check everything, and don’t let mismatched “verified” standards catch you by surprise. If I had a dollar for every time a deal got delayed by cross-jurisdictional confusion, I’d probably have as much revenue growth as BlackSky.