When you’re staring down the barrel of another possible crypto bull market, one question always pops up: will Stellar (XLM) finally break out, or just tag along for the ride? Having traded XLM through two major market rallies and tracked its price swings nearly daily, I’ve seen first-hand how its performance stacks up against the likes of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other “altcoin darlings.” In this piece, I’ll walk you through the messy, sometimes irrational, always fascinating history of Stellar during crypto bull runs. I’ll use real price charts, reference industry data, and share a few personal trading anecdotes (including a mistake or two) to give you a street-level view—plus a look at what big organizations like the OECD and USTR say about global crypto trends, for that broader context.
I remember the first time I went all-in on XLM—late 2017. The market was euphoric, and even my friends’ grandmas were asking about “the next Bitcoin.” I got in at $0.15, watched it rocket to nearly $0.90 in January 2018, then saw most of those gains evaporate in a matter of weeks. It was exhilarating, but also a textbook lesson in altcoin volatility and market psychology.
Let’s break down XLM’s historical bull market performance step by step, using real data and, where possible, screenshots from CoinMarketCap, TradingView, and other tools I used to track my trades.
During the late 2017 rally, Bitcoin grabbed headlines, but altcoins like Stellar saw even wilder percentage gains. According to TradingView historical charts (source), XLM started the year below $0.01 and peaked near $0.93 in early January 2018—a jaw-dropping 9,000%+ return in 12 months. Compare that to Bitcoin’s “mere” 1,300% run.
Why did Stellar move so dramatically? In my view, and as discussed by analysts on Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency (example thread), a few factors played in:
But, as my own frantic sell order on Binance in February 2018 proved, those gains were fleeting. XLM retraced to $0.20 within months, mirroring the broader market crash.
This cycle was different. Bitcoin and Ethereum were in the spotlight, with institutional money flowing in. XLM started 2020 near $0.045 and peaked at around $0.79 in May 2021 (CoinGecko historical data: source), a solid 1,600%+ gain, but nowhere near its 2018 performance.
What I found interesting—and frustrating as someone holding XLM—was that while Bitcoin and Ethereum set new all-time highs, XLM failed to break its 2018 record. My own notes from May 2021 (“Why isn’t XLM flying like DOGE?!”) pretty much sum up the sentiment on crypto Twitter at the time.
Key drivers and obstacles:
Still, XLM outperformed most traditional assets—just not its former self. This was a classic “returning to the mean” moment for altcoins that had already exploded in the previous cycle.
Since mid-2021, XLM has been mostly range-bound ($0.07–$0.15 as of early 2024), with short-lived spikes around partnership news or broader market upswings. During the “mini-rallies” of October 2023 and March 2024, XLM saw quick 20-40% bumps—but these faded fast, as shown in my own TradingView screenshots (I’ll spare you the red candle heartbreak).
It’s clear from my experience and market data that XLM now tracks the crypto majors, but rarely leads. It’s a follower, not a driver, in bull cycles unless the project produces a major, narrative-shifting announcement.
Let’s look at a real scenario from early 2021. When Bitcoin broke $40k in January, my Telegram groups were buzzing: “Is XLM next?” I bought a small bag at $0.25. When DOGE took off in February, XLM lagged behind—eventually peaking at $0.79 in May, while Cardano and Solana made new all-time highs. I ended up selling half my XLM at $0.65, frustrated by its slow climb.
In hindsight (and according to a CoinTelegraph report), XLM’s rally was mostly driven by spillover from Bitcoin and Ethereum, not unique momentum. If you’d rotated into stronger narratives (DeFi, NFTs), you’d have outperformed XLM, at least in that cycle.
To add a layer of realism, I checked what organizations like the OECD and USTR say about crypto and “verified trade.” The OECD’s Crypto-Assets in Finance report (2023) highlights how regulatory clarity can boost or suppress cross-border payment tokens like Stellar. Meanwhile, the USTR is actively studying crypto’s impact on international digital trade standards.
Stellar’s unique value proposition—fast, cheap international payments—should theoretically benefit from global “verified trade” standards. But in reality, different countries have diverging approaches. Here’s a quick table comparing national standards:
| Country | "Verified Trade" Standard Name | Legal Basis | Enforcement Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Travel Rule (FinCEN) | Bank Secrecy Act | FinCEN |
| EU | MiCA Verified Crypto-Assets | Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation | ESMA |
| Japan | Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) Rules | Payment Services Act | FSA |
| Singapore | Digital Payment Token Regulations | Payment Services Act | MAS |
For Stellar, this means the impact of a new bull run could vary dramatically by region. XLM may spike in markets with crypto-friendly policies but lag where regulation is strict or uncertain.
During a 2022 webinar hosted by CoinDesk, Stellar’s CEO Denelle Dixon emphasized that “regulatory clarity and real-world adoption are the biggest levers for future growth.” From my own chats with fintech friends, the consensus is: unless Stellar lands a game-changing partnership, it’s unlikely to lead the next bull market. But it could see outsized gains if cross-border payment tokens get a regulatory green light in key economies.
If you’re eyeing XLM for the next big rally, take it from someone who’s bought high, sold low, and watched the charts obsessively: Stellar’s best days tend to come when altcoin euphoria is at its peak, not when fundamentals are strongest. Regulatory shifts and major partnerships could change the narrative, but so far, XLM has mostly followed—not led—the crypto herd. Its outperformance in 2017-2018 hasn’t repeated, and newer, flashier projects have eaten into its “hype premium.”
For your next steps, I’d recommend tracking regulatory news (OECD, USTR, ESMA updates), watching for big partnership announcements, and—if you trade—setting tight stop losses during rallies. The market’s memory is long, and while history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme.
And hey, if you ever get the urge to fomo in on a green candle, remember my Binance mishap, and double-check your sell targets first. XLM can move fast, but what goes up… well, you know the rest.