Stellar (XLM) Price Performance During Crypto Bull Runs: A Data-Driven Exploration

Summary: Ever wondered how Stellar (XLM) tends to behave when the broader crypto market goes wild? This article breaks down XLM’s historical moves during major bull runs, shares hands-on experiences (including a few blunders), and sprinkles in real-world data and expert opinions. If you're trying to figure out what to expect from XLM in the next crypto rally, or just enjoy a good “I should’ve sold at the top” story, read on.

What Problem Does This Solve?

If you’re like me, you’ve probably stared at XLM’s price chart during a bull run, wondering: “Is this thing ever going to moon like Bitcoin or Ethereum?” Or maybe you’ve held through multiple cycles and noticed XLM sometimes lags, sometimes pumps, and sometimes just…does its own thing. This article aims to answer: How does XLM actually perform during the big crypto rallies? And what might that mean for the next one?

Step 1: Getting the Data—Don’t Just Trust Your Memory

Step 2: Looking at XLM’s Performance During Major Bull Cycles

Let’s break it down by cycle. I’ll focus on 2017, 2020-2021, and a dash of 2023’s mini-rally. Each time, I’ll share what happened, then sprinkle in some personal experience and expert color.

2017 Bull Run: XLM’s Meteoric Rise (and My Near Heart Attack)

In 2017, everyone was suddenly buying crypto—including my college roommate, who asked if he should remortgage his parents’ house for “that stellar thing.” XLM started the year at less than $0.002 (that’s not a typo), and by January 2018 it hit an all-time high near $0.93 (source).

• XLM price Jan 2017: ~$0.002
• XLM price Jan 2018: ~$0.85-0.93 (over 40,000% increase!)

“Stellar benefited from the ICO mania, with its focus on cross-border payments and IBM partnership hyped to the max. But like most alts, it crashed hard after.” — @cryptomanran, Twitter, Jan 2018

I bought at $0.30 and sold at $0.60, thinking I was a genius. Then watched it almost double again. C’est la vie.

2020–2021 Bull Run: XLM vs. The Big Boys

Fast forward, and things were a bit different. Bitcoin and Ethereum led the charge, but XLM still put in work. It started 2020 around $0.045 and hit a local high of ~$0.73 in May 2021 (CoinGecko).

• XLM price Jan 2020: ~$0.045
• XLM price May 2021: ~$0.73 (roughly 16x)
• BTC in same period: ~$7,200 to ~$64,000 (roughly 9x)

So, XLM outperformed BTC percentage-wise, but not as dramatically as in 2017. Also, it lagged behind some other altcoins (like ADA or DOGE). I remember getting greedy, thinking it’d break $1 again. It didn’t.

2023 Mini-Rally: Underwhelming, But Not Dead

The 2023 cycle was more muted for XLM. While Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded strongly off the 2022 lows, XLM only made it from about $0.075 in January to ~$0.16 in July (CMC). That’s a double, but not the fireworks of previous years.

On Reddit, user u/NextWaveCrypto summed up the vibe: “XLM just seems to grind up slowly, while newer coins get all the hype.” (Reddit source)

Step 3: Why Does XLM Move Like This? A Quick Dive Into the Dynamics

Here’s where things get spicy. XLM tends to outperform the market in the early stages of a bull run (thanks to its liquidity and “OG altcoin” status), but then gets overshadowed by meme coins or layer-1s with more aggressive marketing. Also, XLM’s focus on payment rails is less “sexy” than, say, DeFi or NFTs.

“Stellar’s institutional partnerships are impressive, but retail hype cycles drive the biggest price surges. It always runs, but rarely leads.” — Dr. Lisa Chao, Blockchain Researcher (paraphrased from CoinDesk interview)

In other words: if you’re expecting XLM to repeat its 2017 gains, temper expectations. But if you want a relative “safe” alt that still pumps, it’s not the worst choice.

Step 4: Regulatory and Macro Factors—Don’t Ignore the Suit-and-Tie Crowd

One overlooked aspect: XLM’s price can be heavily influenced by real-world regulations. For instance, the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) guidelines on anti-money laundering have pushed blockchain projects to improve transparency. Stellar has responded by seeking compliance, which sometimes limits its “wild west” upside, but also attracts more institutional players (official blog).

Compared to more speculative coins, this may help XLM in the long run, but it can mean less “pump” during meme-driven mania. Also, in the US, the SEC’s evolving stance on crypto tokens (see SEC Release No. 2020-338) can impact liquidity or exchange listings.

Case Study: XLM vs. XRP—A Tale of Two Payment Coins

Let’s put this in context. In 2020, while XRP got hit with an SEC lawsuit, XLM benefited from “flight to safety” among payment coins, gaining 200% in weeks (Coindesk). But as XRP’s legal drama faded, XLM’s price also cooled off, showing how much these coins can be affected by external events—not just technical upgrades or partnerships.

Source: CoinGecko, XLM vs. XRP, 2020–2021.

International Trade Verification: How Standards Differ

You might wonder—how do regulations affect XLM’s use in cross-border payments? Turns out, different countries have very different approaches to “verified trade.” Here’s a quick comparison table summarizing major differences:

So, if Stellar wants to be the backbone for international settlements, it has to play by all these rules. That’s a big reason why its price moves can lag until new regulatory clarity emerges.

Expert Take: What Do Analysts Say?

I called up an industry contact, Mark T., who’s worked at a major crypto exchange (he asked to stay off the record). His take: “XLM always sees a decent pop with the majors, but the narrative rarely sticks. Unless there’s huge news—like a new CBDC on Stellar—I wouldn’t expect it to outpace trendier tokens in the next run.”

That matches what you see in the data: XLM often pumps early when the market is hot, but then cools off as traders chase newer narratives.

Conclusion: What Can You Expect in the Next Bull Run?

Here’s the bottom line, based on data, expert opinion, and my own “learned the hard way” experience: XLM tends to follow the market, often outperforming in early bull phases, but rarely leads. It’s a solid, lower-hype altcoin that’s less likely to disappear overnight, but also less likely to deliver crazy 100x gains without a major narrative shift.

If you’re investing, watch for:

• Regulatory news—especially anything about cross-border payments
• Big partnerships (think CBDCs or major banks)
• Market sentiment—if meme coins are running, XLM might lag

My advice? Don’t FOMO in expecting 2017-style returns, but don’t dismiss XLM either. If you want to track the next rally, set alerts for significant news, and maybe take profits on the way up. As always: do your own research, and don’t remortgage your parents’ house for crypto.

Next Steps: If you want to dive deeper, check out the Stellar blockchain explorer for live network stats, or join the discussion on r/Stellar. And if you ever want a reality check, look up your favorite coin’s 2018-2019 chart. It’s humbling.