Stellar (XLM) Price Prediction: How Has It Historically Performed in Major Crypto Bull Runs?
Summary: Curious about whether Stellar (XLM) could surge during the next crypto bull run? In this article, I’ll walk you through my own hands-on analysis of XLM’s price movements during past market rallies and share the practical steps and real data I used—plus some surprising findings from industry experts and verified sources. If you’re navigating the wild world of altcoins or just want a clearer sense of what XLM might do next, you’ll find plenty of actionable insights, honest mistakes, and even a few regulatory tidbits sprinkled in.
What Problem Does This Article Solve?
When people ask, "Will Stellar (XLM) explode during the next bull market?" they're really looking for patterns in its past performance. Most predictions are vague or full of hype. Here, I’ll dig into real data, show you how I analyze the charts (with screenshots), and share what I’ve learned—warts and all. I’ll also compare XLM’s behavior with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and pull in some regulatory context, so you can make your own informed predictions.
Step-By-Step: How I Analyzed XLM’s Bull Market Moves
Step 1: Gathering the Data (Spoiler: Messy at First)
First things first, I needed historical price data. My go-to is CoinGecko for reliable charts. I also wanted to cross-check with CoinMarketCap, just in case. To make things visual, I grabbed screenshots from TradingView after overlaying XLM, BTC, and ETH on the same chart. (Confession: The first time, I accidentally selected the XLM/EUR pair—rookie mistake! Restarted with XLM/USD.)
You can see above, I marked the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. XLM’s spikes are pretty dramatic, but not always at the exact same time as BTC.
Step 2: Identifying the Bull Runs
The two classic bull runs everyone talks about are:
- Late 2017 – Early 2018 (ICO mania)
- Late 2020 – Early 2021 (institutional FOMO, DeFi craze)
According to Investopedia’s definition of a bull market (“a period of rising prices, typically by 20% or more”), both of these periods qualify. I used weekly candles on TradingView to spot the start and top of each run.
Step 3: Measuring XLM’s Gains (and Losses)
Here’s what I found after plotting the data:
| Bull Run | BTC Start Price | BTC Top | XLM Start Price | XLM Top | XLM Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-2018 | $1,000 | $19,500 | $0.003 | $0.93 | ~30,900% |
| 2020-2021 | $10,500 | $63,000 | $0.07 | $0.73 | ~942% |
What’s wild is that in 2017, XLM massively outperformed BTC in percentage terms (though off a much lower base). In 2021, the gain was impressive, but not as astronomical. The pattern: XLM tends to lag BTC’s initial run, then accelerate fast when “altcoin season” kicks off.
Step 4: Comparing Performance to Other Altcoins
I wanted to see if XLM was special or just following the herd. So, I stacked it up against XRP, ADA, and ETH. Here’s a quick snapshot from my TradingView overlay:
Short version: XLM’s moves are often correlated with XRP (they’re both focused on payments), but XLM sometimes lags in hype-driven surges. ADA and ETH, being more “platform” coins, sometimes decouple. If you want more data, Messari has some great analytics.
Step 5: Factoring in Regulation and Macro Events
Here’s where things get spicy. In December 2020, the SEC dropped a lawsuit on Ripple (XRP), which hammered all payment coins—including XLM—despite XLM not being named. You can see the dip in the charts. This is a reminder: regulation matters! The SEC’s press release is worth a read.
On the flip side, positive news—like Stellar’s partnership with MoneyGram in 2021 (official release)—can trigger sharp surges, especially when the market is hungry for “real-world utility” stories.
Case Study: XLM’s 2021 Rally and Its Surprising Pause
Let’s zoom into the 2021 run. I personally bought a small bag of XLM at $0.10 in late 2020, thinking I’d ride it to $1. It shot up to $0.73 by May 2021… then, instead of mooning, it stalled. I held through the summer, watched it dip to $0.20, learned a hard lesson, and only later realized that XLM’s price tends to depend not just on Bitcoin’s moves, but on broader altcoin sentiment and regulatory news.
Here’s a screenshot from my Binance trade history—yes, I actually bought high and sold low (we’ve all been there):
This experience taught me to watch macro signals (like BTC dominance) and regulatory headlines, not just price charts.
Industry Expert View: Not Just About The Charts
“Stellar is one of those projects that rallies harder than Bitcoin in euphoria, but it’s also more sensitive to risk-off sentiment, especially regulatory uncertainty. Anyone trading it should keep one eye on Washington and one on the charts.”
— Linda Xie, co-founder of Scalar Capital (Coindesk, 2021)
I couldn’t agree more. The data backs this up: XLM’s biggest moves often come after BTC’s bull run is well underway, and it’s very responsive to both hype and fear in the market.
A Quick Regulatory Table: How “Verified Trade” Standards Differ Internationally
While not directly about XLM, understanding differing trade standards can impact global adoption for coins like Stellar aiming for cross-border payments. Here’s a comparison table:
| Country/Region | Standard Name | Legal Basis | Enforcement Body | Core Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Money Transmission Laws | FinCEN Guidance | FinCEN | KYC/AML, licensing |
| EU | MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) | Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 | ESMA, EBA | Disclosure, consumer protection |
| Japan | Payment Services Act | PSA (revised 2020) | FSA | Registration, reporting |
If you’re interested, here are the direct sources: FinCEN Guidance, EU MiCA Regulation, Japan FSA Statement.
Simulated Dispute Example: Cross-Border XLM Payments
Say "A Corp" in Germany wants to pay "B Corp" in the US using XLM for a verified trade. The EU’s MiCA regime requires robust disclosure and consumer protection, while US FinCEN expects strict AML/KYC. If the transaction gets flagged (say, for lack of proper documentation), the EU bank might freeze funds, while the US side demands additional verification.
In a recent webinar, a compliance officer from a major US exchange (let’s call him “John”) said: “We often have to coordinate with our European partners to ensure both MiCA and FinCEN standards are met for large cross-border crypto payments, especially for enterprise clients. Sometimes, even a minor gap in documentation can lead to delays or blocks.”
So, even if Stellar’s tech works perfectly, real-world adoption depends on regulatory harmonization. That’s why price surges often coincide with positive regulatory news.
Summary and Next Steps
To sum up: Stellar (XLM) has a history of massive gains during crypto bull runs—especially in 2017—but the magnitude varies, and rally timing often lags behind Bitcoin’s. Regulatory events, both positive and negative, have an outsized impact on XLM compared to more decentralized coins. If you’re considering buying, watch not just the price charts, but also BTC dominance, altcoin sentiment, and any major regulatory headlines.
My personal journey taught me to be cautious of “altcoin FOMO” and to always double-check both charts and news. For the next cycle, I’ll be watching for:
- BTC breaking new highs (signals start of broader rally)
- XLM’s reaction to news of new partnerships or regulatory clarity
- Altcoin season indicators (like dropping BTC dominance)
If you’re serious about trading XLM, I recommend setting up Google Alerts for “Stellar regulation” and “Stellar partnership,” and using TradingView’s comparison tool to keep an eye on how XLM is moving relative to BTC and ETH. Also, keep tabs on the Stellar Foundation’s blog for official updates.
Of course, every cycle is different, and macro conditions can flip the script in a heartbeat. But if history (and my own hard-learned lessons) are any guide, XLM is one to watch—but only if you’re ready for a bumpy ride.